It seems when a consensus develops in this election, the opposite is often true.
Given this a widely held consensus is Trump has a Women and Hispanics/minority problem. That is well understood and needs no more explanation.
However, is the real issue is that Hillary has a men and White problem? Consider.
Exit polls: Nearly half of W.Va. Sanders backers would vote Trump
May 10, 2016, 05:58 pm
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote
Nearly half of the voters in the West Virginia Democratic primary who backed Bernie Sanders say they would vote for Republican Donald Trump in the fall presidential election, according to exit polls reported by CBS News.
Forty-four percent of Sanders supporters surveyed said they would rather back the presumptive GOP nominee in November, with only 23 percent saying they’d support Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. And 31 percent said would support neither candidate in the likely general election match-up.
According to ABC News, about 80 percent of West Virginia Republican voters say they’re excited or optimistic about what Trump would do if he were elected president, and 9 in 10 think Trump is likely to beat Clinton in a general election.
In a match-up between Trump and Clinton, about 90 percent of Republican primary voters in West Virginia say they would vote for Trump.
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Sanders has gotten about 46% of all the pledged delegates so far (54% for Hillary). Sanders has won 20 states (Hillary 23).
Most of Sanders voters is white. West Virginia is the quintessential white voter state. If the take away is one-third plus of Sanders voters will vote for Trump, 40% for Hillary and the rest (presumably college kids) stay home, Trump wins in a landslide (assuming he holds his base).
How Many Voters Support Trump but Don’t Want to Admit It?
Thomas B. Edsall MAY 11, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/opinion/campaign-stops/how-many-people-support-trump-but-dont-want-to-admit-it.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=2&mtrref=www.facebook.com&gwt
In a detailed analysis of phone versus online polling in Republican primaries, Kyle A. Dropp, the executive director of polling and data science at Morning Consult, writes:
Trump’s advantage in online polls compared with live telephone polling is eight or nine percentage points among likely voters.
This difference, Dropp notes, is driven largely by more educated voters — those who would be most concerned with “social desirability.”
These findings suggest that Trump will head into the general election with support from voters who are reluctant to admit their preferences to a live person in a phone survey, but who may well be inclined to cast a ballot for Trump on Election Day.
Add it all up and Hillary has a bigger men and white problem than Trump has a women and Hispanics/minority problem.
