Ukraine of the Brain: A Case Study in Losing Written By Jacob Dreizin
Nothing has changed from my initial Ukraine war factsheet from eight months ago (attached), except that President Zelensky’s approval rating has fallen squarely below 20 percent, he has been outed for helping launder $40 million to Cyprus in his prior career as a comedian and TV producer, and he has commenced jailing the opposition and closing their media a.k.a. “saving democracy”, with the full, outspoken support of the U.S. Embassy. The one thing saving him (for now) is his party’s supermajority in parliament, but with a party approval rating barely above his own, the smartest rats are leaving the ship and turning on him. He was desperate when I sent out my factsheet; he is even more desperate now. The knives are out. Some very deep pockets have lined up against him. If he falls, he will have to leave the country on an unscheduled flight—he simply can’t stay.
The U.S. is using Ukraine to fight Russia, but remains unwilling to fight Russia itself, or to invest “real” money in this country. Our embassy in Kiev is scoping out who it might get behind to replace Zelensky as of the 2023 election, but at the same time, is doing everything to keep him in power until then, to include neutralizing all opposition, as it is understood that only hyper-centralized presidential authority—under the guise of “democracy” and “fighting corruption”—allows Ukraine to continue to stand against Russia.
For example, the U.S. Embassy is widely believed to have pressured the sudden, unexpected resignation of the long-time interior minister, Avakov, who was a power unto himself, and the one man who might conceivably have led some kind of “palace coup” ahead of the election. Also, the U.S. Treasury Department has just sanctioned the head of Ukraine’s Constitutional Court (and his wife), who had been illegally suspended and locked out of his own office by Zelensky in a struggle over the scope of the court’s powers. (The official explanation is “for taking bribes”, by which logic they should sanction Zelensky’s entire regime.)
Of course, Uncle Sam doesn’t care that (by the most conservative estimates) four million working-age Ukrainian citizens from areas still under government control—over one quarter of the workforce—have voted with their feet and moved to Russia, Poland, Italy, etc. since 2014, most with no intention to return. Ukraine is never going to rise above the level of a U.S. puppet state, being handed just enough money to hold up its pants in the fight against Russia, and not one cent more. The country has just that one purpose, without which, it would be discarded and flushed down the toilet. To be blunt, Ukraine is being “used”, but no one—least of all its “customers”—respects its “profession.”
The present escalation with Russia will be resolved if or when Uncle Sam reigns in any move by Ukraine to take back—or act like it is about to take back—the rebel regions under Russia’s wing. However, the “problem” this time, is that Russia has made clear through many channels that its pain threshold for tolerating the usual once-or-twice-per-year, “hey we’re still here” military escalation from the Ukrainians—more intense artillery bombardment, assaults on vulnerable outposts, industrial sabotage, etc.—is now much lower than ever before. This time, it appears Bad Vlad would prefer liquidating Ukraine to putting up with the endless drama and constant risk of NATO deployment to the country. It’s winter, Europe is running low on fuel, and he seems to feel that it’s now or never. Russia is clearly not bluffing when it demands written guarantees against NATO involvement with Ukraine… or else. Hence, Brandon’s people are walking a very fine line.
There is another aspect that has not been discussed. The extreme financial sanctions that our State Department is threatening against Russia, would—besides sending our average unleaded gallon price much closer to $4.00—blow up the European natural gas market this harsh winter, sending the “Dutch Hub” price from its already totally insane range of $950 to $1150 per 1000 cubic meters to $1500 or higher. This, in turn, would put further pressure on fertilizer and food prices worldwide into 2022 and beyond. Also note, Russia accounts for 45 percent of the world’s ammonium nitrate exports, to include 40 percent of U.S. needs, and if it can’t take payment in dollars, and has to pay workaround cuts to various money-changer intermediaries, that alone could hike the price of this fertilizer (now already at an all-time high and in short supply in most countries) everywhere by five to 10 percent on a pure cost basis, or much higher on speculative/panic grounds.
Since 2014, Russia has stood up new financial IT systems and is prepared structurally and technically for this moment—it is well positioned to survive the sanctions and “make bank” even as the West shoots itself in the foot. I am more worried about us here.
What’s the relevance to our political scene? Understanding that any major escalation will ultimately hit the American voter in the pocket, Republicans should just let Brandon’s people sort it out. Please, GOP, don’t give the bastards any “statesman” legitimacy, or any “war fever” cover to sneak their crazy agenda in through the cracks. It’s a no-win, let them own it. Just let it go. You will have your own go at Russia in due time. If you feel the “must grandstand against Russia” itchy-itch, please find the nearest methadone clinic.
Put Senator Roger Wicker—who went on Fox to raise the possibility of a pre-emptive naval strike on Russia, as well as an offensive “nuclear action”—in a straitjacket for a few months. We can’t have low-IQ people representing the party on national TV, morons who volunteer to help Democrats take the focus off inflation and crime and things that voters care about. Shocking as it may sound, Wicker’s base—and yours’, if you hold office or work for someone who does—cares more about hundreds of political prisoners held and tortured in DC for 11 months without trial and without sufficient evidence to bring to trial (most of them for just “trespassing” for 20 minutes, many of them in fact waived-in through the doors by police), than about Puh-puh-puh-Poootin.
In short… please let go of the stupid and DON’T TAKE THE BAIT!!!
