Thomas B. Edsall MAY 11, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/opinion/campaign-stops/how-many-people-support-trump-but-dont-want-to-admit-it.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=2&mtrref=www.facebook.com&gwt
In a detailed analysis of phone versus online polling in Republican primaries, Kyle A. Dropp, the executive director of polling and data science at Morning Consult, writes:
Trump’s advantage in online polls compared with live telephone polling is eight or nine percentage points among likely voters.
This difference, Dropp notes, is driven largely by more educated voters — those who would be most concerned with “social desirability.”
These findings suggest that Trump will head into the general election with support from voters who are reluctant to admit their preferences to a live person in a phone survey, but who may well be inclined to cast a ballot for Trump on Election Day.
How Many Voters Support Trump but Don’t Want to Admit It?
Does Hillary Have A Bigger Men And White Problem?
It seems when a consensus develops in this election, the opposite is often true.
Given this a widely held consensus is Trump has a Women and Hispanics/minority problem. That is well understood and needs no more explanation.
However, is the real issue is that Hillary has a men and White problem? Consider.
Exit polls: Nearly half of W.Va. Sanders backers would vote Trump
May 10, 2016, 05:58 pm
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote
Nearly half of the voters in the West Virginia Democratic primary who backed Bernie Sanders say they would vote for Republican Donald Trump in the fall presidential election, according to exit polls reported by CBS News.
Forty-four percent of Sanders supporters surveyed said they would rather back the presumptive GOP nominee in November, with only 23 percent saying they’d support Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. And 31 percent said would support neither candidate in the likely general election match-up.
According to ABC News, about 80 percent of West Virginia Republican voters say they’re excited or optimistic about what Trump would do if he were elected president, and 9 in 10 think Trump is likely to beat Clinton in a general election.
In a match-up between Trump and Clinton, about 90 percent of Republican primary voters in West Virginia say they would vote for Trump.
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Sanders has gotten about 46% of all the pledged delegates so far (54% for Hillary). Sanders has won 20 states (Hillary 23).
Most of Sanders voters is white. West Virginia is the quintessential white voter state. If the take away is one-third plus of Sanders voters will vote for Trump, 40% for Hillary and the rest (presumably college kids) stay home, Trump wins in a landslide (assuming he holds his base).
How Many Voters Support Trump but Don’t Want to Admit It?
Thomas B. Edsall MAY 11, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/opinion/campaign-stops/how-many-people-support-trump-but-dont-want-to-admit-it.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=2&mtrref=www.facebook.com&gwt
In a detailed analysis of phone versus online polling in Republican primaries, Kyle A. Dropp, the executive director of polling and data science at Morning Consult, writes:
Trump’s advantage in online polls compared with live telephone polling is eight or nine percentage points among likely voters.
This difference, Dropp notes, is driven largely by more educated voters — those who would be most concerned with “social desirability.”
These findings suggest that Trump will head into the general election with support from voters who are reluctant to admit their preferences to a live person in a phone survey, but who may well be inclined to cast a ballot for Trump on Election Day.
Add it all up and Hillary has a bigger men and white problem than Trump has a women and Hispanics/minority problem.
War Weapons for America's Police Departments
War Weapons for America’s Police Departments – New Data Shows Feds Transfer $2.2B in Military Gear
Adam Andrzejewski 5/10/2016 Forbes
I cover the “daily greed” of national, state, and local politics.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
Despite public outcry, new federal data shows that 2014 and 2015 were peak years for shipments of surplus military gear to local police departments across America.
This week our organization released the study, OpenTheBooks Snapshot Report – The Militarization of Local Police Departments that quantified the transfer of 1.5 million weapons-related items from the Department of Defense (DoD) to federal, state and local law enforcement since 2006. New federal records show police agencies in Florida, Texas, California, Tennessee, and Arizona led the nation in procuring surplus military-weaponry from the DoD over the last ten years.
We found a federally sponsored ‘gun show’ that never ends. Small town police are armed with M16 and M14 rifles, night-vision googles, bayonets and armored trucks. Junior colleges and county sheriffs procured mine-resistant vehicles (MRV’s). Even local park districts and forest preserves stocked up on military-style equipment.
The 1033 Program created by the National Defense Authorization Act (1997) authorized the transfer of excess military equipment to civilian law enforcement.
In total, our new data reveals $2.2 billion worth of military gear including helicopters and airplanes, armored trucks and cars, tens of thousands of M16 and M14 rifles, thousands of bayonets, mine detectors, and many other types of weaponry.
Thousands of units of government across America received military equipment. Using our mapping technology, citizens can quickly search the military ‘gun lockers’ of your local government: park districts, forest preserves, hometown police departments, junior colleges, universities, county sheriffs, natural resource and public safety departments, state police – and Homeland Security, Interior, and the Justice Department – across any ZIP code.
- 7,091 trucks ($400.9 million); 625 mine-resistant vehicles (421.1 million); 471 helicopters ($158.3 million); 56 airplanes ($271.5 million); and 329 armored trucks and cars ($21.3 million);
- 83,122 M16/M14 rifles (5.56mm and 7.62mm) ($31.2 million); 8,198 pistols (.38 and .45 caliber) ($491,769); and 1,385 riot 12-guage shotguns ($137,265);
- 18,299 night-vision sights, sniper scopes, binoculars, goggles, infrared and image magnifiers ($98.5 million); 5,518 infrared, articulated, panoramic and laser telescopes ($5.5 million);
- 866 mine detecting sets, marking kits, and probes ($3.3 million); 57 grenade launchers ($41,040);
- 5,638 bayonets ($307,769) and 36 swords and scabbards.
A few examples of the local and regional law enforcement weaponry largess:
In Florida, the state highway patrol received 1,815 M16/M14 rifles (5.56mm and 7.62mm), plus six military-armored vehicles, three Mine Resistant Vehicles, and three Complete Combat/Assault/Tactical Wheeled Vehicles.
In California, we found 18,794 DOD transactions transferring weaponry including nearly 7,500 trades involving M16/M14 rifles. The University of California at Berkley accepted the delivery of 14 M16 rifles. Yet that paled in comparison to the 1,105 M16/M14 rifles (5.56mm and 7.62mm) and two mine-resistant vehicles acquired by the Los Angeles County Sheriff.
In Washington, D.C., the Metropolitan Police procured 500 M16 rifles – which is half of what the entire state of New Jersey received in rifles. The DC Metro Transit police have also followed a federal procurement process to obtain 134.5 lbs. of C4, TNT, potassium chlorate, semtex (plastic explosive), and other explosives over the next nine years.
Many small towns across America received military weapons. Granite City, IL (pop. 29,375) received 25 M16 and M14 rifles (5.56mm and 7.62mm), plus a military-armored truck and a robot for ‘explosive ordinance disposal.’ Lacon, IL (pop. 1,853) received six .45 and .38 special pistols, five M16/M14 (5.56mm and 7.63mm), and a 12-gage ‘riot’ shotgun.
Many of the DOD weapons transfers have a questionable law enforcement purpose. In Illinois, the Department of Natural Resources received 174 M16 and M14 rifles. Why? To enforce hunting laws?
On the battlefield of war, a bayonet in hand-to-hand combat is tactically used to bleed-out your enemies. So, exactly what is the legitimate law enforcement purpose for DHS, ATF, FBI, DEA, and local police departments to obtain thousands of military-bayonets?
Our data shows 5,638 bayonets were sent to other federal law enforcement agencies or local police departments. Homeland Security (DHS) obtained 3,905 bayonets at 15 locations – with DHS Customs and Border Protection in El Paso, TX receiving 3,260 of those bayonets. The Justice Department (DOJ) secured 682 bayonets delivered to 16 locations of the ATF, FBI, and DEA. To his credit, President Obama recognized this disconnect and signed an executive order prohibiting the transfer of bayonets starting in 2016.
It’s no secret the American people are distrustful of our political class, and rightly so. But transparency can help restore trust by giving people the information they need to hold elected officials accountable.
More than 60 percent of property-tax revenue goes toward their local school districts.
The Illinois Way is failing Democrats in Chicago and Springfield
The Illinois Way — tax, borrow, spend — seems to be losing its appeal. The Democrat-controlled Chicago City Council and Illinois General Assembly are struggling to rally support for their so-called progressive agendas. Even proposals that would tax the rich are flopping, despite the blockbuster success of class warfare politics practiced by Democratic candidates for president Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
In Springfield, recent casualties include a graduated state income tax proposal that would have punished upper-income earners. The House sponsor, Rep. Christian Mitchell, D-Chicago, didn’t call the measure for a vote because he couldn’t muster enough support despite his party’s supermajority.
House Speaker Michael Madigan has been unable to build enough support for his proposal to add a tax surcharge on millionaires. Remember, he’s the speaker.
And legislation in Springfield that would rescue Chicago Public Schools has floundered for at least two years. CPS officials and the Chicago Teachers Union have been begging for more tax money from the city and the state. CTU recently released a proposal to increase taxes on gasoline, property, hotels — a long list — to prop up the district’s budget.
But such pleas now go largely ignored. Mayor Rahm Emanuel shut the door to the CTU’s tax plan almost immediately.
Schools CEO Forrest Claypool basically admitted the district, now rated at junk bond status, can only access lines of credit as it tries to limp along. Long-term borrowing isn’t feasible because the interest rates imposed on the nearly-insolvent district are too high.
Yet no one is bailing out CPS, not City Hall or the state, as they have in the past under similar “doomsday” scenarios.
Meanwhile, the public reacted sourly to Emanuel’s plan to borrow $1.2 billion for a George Lucas museum on the lakefront. With Chicago schools destitute, teachers threatening to strike sometime this year and violent crime climbing, a taxpayer-enabled favor for a billionaire filmmaker hit a collective nerve.
Emanuel, with his subservient City Council of fellow Democrats, usually gets what he wants, especially shiny new baubles. Not happening this time.
What gives?
Perhaps Democrats are realizing that this city and state cannot tax their way out of debt or into prosperity. The temporary state income tax hike of 2011 took an extra $31 billion out of taxpayers’ pockets but — despite Democrats’ forceful promises — did little to change the debt-driven trajectory of state government. Taxpayers are still paying a rate of 3.75 percent, a rate one-quarter higher than before the hike. It has made no difference. Illinois’ unpaid bill pile grows every day.
Chicago taxpayers will see a spike in this summer’s property tax bills, thanks to Emanuel and the council approving the largest property tax hike in the city’s history last fall — $755 million in new taxes and fees. Yet the city still will be awash in pension liabilities and other debts.
CPS will raise its property tax levy to the maximum allowed, and it’s not enough.
All of this comes in addition to a new study confirming that Illinoisans pay the highest median property tax rate in the country. California-based analytics company CoreLogic reviewed real estate taxes nationwide. The study found that an Illinois property owner with a home valued at $200,000 will, on average, pay $2,720 more in property taxes annually than the national average.
Oh — and have you heard that, with an assist from Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and her board’s Democrats, Chicago’s sales tax is now the nation’s highest? Lots of consumers who shop elsewhere can tell you all about it.
This page has been writing, arguably not enough, about taxpayers’ debts and public sector pensions for decades. One 1991 editorial hammered lawmakers and then-Gov. James Thompson, a compliant Republican, for agreeing to a new pension funding formula and then ignoring the payment schedule. Under the deal, Thompson’s own pension doubled.
But if the failures of Democratic, progressive fiscal policies in Chicago and Springfield are any indication, perhaps voters are finally keen to the Ponzi schemes. The long reliable tax-borrow-spend model has not worked, is not working, will not work, and voters know it. They’re rebelling with their moving vans.
When Democrats can’t get their own tax-the-rich proposals through a supermajority House and Senate, after multiple tries, that’s a sign of change. When Chicago and Illinois officials balk at borrowing money for a museum construction project, that’s a sign of change. When citizens get wise to the tax-borrow-spend selfishness of forcing Tomorrow to pay for Yesterday and Today, that’s a sign of change.
It’s about time.
DOJ Joins DOE to Redefine Sex and Rewrite Law
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Illinois lawmakers search high and low for ways to raise taxes on residents
Austin Berg 5/6/2016 Illinois Policy Institute
Illinois is built to fail on both fronts.
As Illinois lawmakers search high and low for ways to raise taxes on residents, a reportfrom Moody’s Investors Service highlights how to ensure financial stability in good times and bad. One key takeaway? Illinoisans were wise to fight back against a progressive income tax.
Moody’s “stress test,” released April 21, measures the ability of the 20 largest states to weather a potential recession. Texas took the No. 1 spot, meaning it is best able to stabilize state finances should a recession hit. At the bottom of the rankings are Illinois and California, meaning their state finances are most likely to be thrown into turmoil should another recession hit.
While many parallels can be drawn between the mismanagement of Illinois and California, each state is ill prepared for different reasons. The difference illuminates the paths Illinois lawmakers should avoid in trying to put the state on sustainable fiscal footing.
For one, California relies heavily on its progressive income tax to raise revenue from wealthy individuals. This results in massive year-to-year swings when the economy takes a dive. In 2000, when the tech boom was at its peak, California saw its revenues grow by more than 20 percent in a single year. But two years later revenues tanked by more than 17 percent. The state also saw a 12 percent decline in 2009 when another recession struck the state.
By contrast, Texas hasn’t seen a single year in recent history when revenue declined by more than 9 percent. And as Moody’s notes, “the greatest decline in Texas came not during the 1980s oil downturn, but during the 2009 recession.”
What’s the key to Texas’ even keel?
Instead of taking dollars directly out of residents’ paychecks, Texas gets a majority of its state revenue through a broad sales tax. These revenues are much less vulnerable to wild swings. The Lonestar State also empowers its governor with the flexibility to make midyear spending cuts in concert with the Legislative Budget Board.
Another important difference between California and Illinois is the portion of state revenue swallowed up by fixed costs: debt and pensions.
The less debt a state has when a recession hits, the easier it is to bounce back on the way up.Crippling debt and an irrational tax hike attempting to fix it were part of why Illinois experienced a tremendously painful recovery from the Great Recession.
According to Moody’s analysis, 28 cents of every state dollar in Illinois goes to two things: pensions and debt payments. That’s far higher than states such as Indiana (7.3 cents), Ohio (7 cents), Texas (8.5 cents), Florida (5.7 cents) and even California (12.5 cents).
Illinois spends 25 percent of all state revenue on pensions alone, which is a higher share than pension and debt payments combined in every other state measured.
When Illinois last hiked its income tax in 2011, 90 percent of the new money went to pay for pensions. It’s no wonder Illinoisans won’t stomach another tax hike without major spending reforms.
Changes that can save money, grow the economy and help the middle class are the smart way forward on the spending side. Moving away from the income tax and toward a broad sales tax are the smart moves on the revenue side.
The latter shouldn’t come before the former.
Social Security moves to block the mentally ill from purchasing guns
The Social Security Administration (SSA) is proposing to report people who receive disability benefits and have a mental health condition to the FBI’s background check system.
The proposal, which stems from a memorandum that President Obama issued in 2013, would essentially block some people with severe mental health problems from buying guns.
The SSA, which will propose the rule in Thursday’s edition of the Federal Register, says it plans to notify disability beneficiaries who might be reported and establish a process for them to appeal their placement in the FBI’s background check system.
The proposal is just the latest attempt by the Obama administration to keep guns out of the hands of the mentally ill.
Similar efforts by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) have been met with controversy. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has accused the VA of reporting veterans to the FBI simply because they cannot manage their personal finances and must be assigned a fiduciary.
According to Grassley, 99 percent of the people the FBI prohibits from owning guns because they are considered “mentally defective” come from the VA.
Now, the SSA is proposing to take similar precautions with people who receive disability insurance because they are unable to work due to mental health disorders.
“It appears that just like the VA, SSA’s regulatory action will not require the government to first prove that the individual is a danger to self or others,” Grassley wrote last July in a letter to Carolyn Colvin, acting commissioner of the Social Security Administration.
“Is the SSA using the VA’s regulatory standard as a template for reporting names to the [FBI]?” he asked. “If not, in what ways is the SSA’s regulatory scheme different from the VA’s?”
Some of the mental conditions the SSA screens for include schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders, personality disorders, intellectual disabilities, anxiety-related disorders, substance addiction disorders and autistic disorders.
Depending on the severity of their condition, people with mental health disorders may qualify for disability insurance.
The public has 60 days to comment about the proposal.
The Establishment Political Class prefer Hilary to keep their Statis Quo
Now those same nattering nabobs of #NeverTrump are promising to stay home – or worse (from the Republican Party’s point of view) – vote for the other party’s candidate so they can vote against Donald Trump.
Seems that to the nattering class, what’s good for the goose isn’t good for the gander. That’s because it’s not really about party to them. Nor is it about America first.
To the Republican nattering class and most of the establishment Republicans it’s about status quo and big government statism. There is nothing conservative about the GOP establishment and their enabling nattering class. They are war-loving, empire-building statists.
Trump is likewise a statist, but he’s a threat to their status quo because he’s not their statist. Hillary Clinton, though she’s a Democrat, is their statist because she represents the status quo. Like them, the witch from Chappaqua is a war-loving, empire-building statist. And statists gonna state.
America is the world leader for invading your privacy
The following is an excerpt from the May 1999 issue in which I warned readers about the many ways the U.S. government was working to steal your privacy. In it I stated that I had often wondered what kind of shock it would take to wake the American people up. We now have the answer to this question. It took whistleblowers like Edward Snowden and Julian Assange who risked their lives to expose secrets the government didn’t want you to know. Governments federal, state and local continue to steal from the people through the IRS and through forfeiture laws, and more people are finally waking up to the fact that their trust in authority has been misplaced. The advice to keep a low profile and remain invisible is still sound after 17 years.)
The United States of America is the world leader for invading your privacy. No other country past or present even comes close and this absolutely includes Nazi Germany. Not many Americans really know this.
The reason is that the government itself keeps a low profile on its invasion of your privacy. This is a modern phase of psychological warfare developed since World War II. For example when new laws are enacted that further invade your privacy and restrict your liberty, they always without exception give titles to these laws that deceive you into thinking that the new law is for your benefit. People never read the new law, only the misleading title. The taxpayers’ Bill of Rights Act of 1988 is a classic example of psychological warfare.
I call the American system benevolent totalitarianism because there has been created in the U.S. a seductive system of psychological warfare coupled with a highly oppressive legal system that essentially puts the people in an economic and political straitjacket while keeping them believing that they are free. Believe me, this system is so sophisticated that precious few suspect a thing while most people defend the system without question. Anyone who does question the system is immediately branded unpatriotic. The people control system plays people off against each other according to their capacity to deal with reality.
The underlying problem is the implicit trust of authority. People believe what the politicians and the bureaucrats say almost without question. I have often wondered what kind of shock it would take to wake the American people up.
If you have anything and don’t want your possessions taken from you through suit happy lawyers or the government, you should become conscious of being low profile and make yourself as invisible as possible. The time is now to do this!!!