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| Unleash Prosperity Hotline Issue #21 Written by Stephen Moore 1) Happy Opening Day! (No, not the baseball one. Yet.) Arizona, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Virginia open today for non-COVID medical procedures. Alabama opened up for non-COVID medical procedures and nonessential businesses at 5pm yesterday. Arkansas barber shops and hair salons. Iowa opens gyms, malls, and retail stores — and restaurants in 77 of the state’s 99 counties. Louisiana restaurants open outdoor seating. North Dakota opens businesses, restaurants, and bars. Texas opens stores, malls, movie theaters (limited capacity) and restaurants (limited capacity). Utah opens gyms, barber shops and hair salons and restaurants. (Thank you to our friends at Strategas for the rundown.) 2) Lindsey Graham 2.0 Is Back The senator is leading the charge to block any extension of the unemployment-pays-more-than-work feature Democrats demanded in the CARES Act that is slated to expire on July 31. Nancy Pelosi says an extension through the end of September is at the top of her must-have list and Ron Wyden says it should be extended indefinitely. Graham told South Carolina business leaders: “I promise you over our dead bodies will this get reauthorized,” referring to himself Sen. Tim Scott. “We’ve got to stop this.” https://www.postandcourier.com/health/covid19/over-our-dead-bodies-graham-promises-congress-wont-extend-600-weekly-extra-for-jobless/article_ec357ed4-8a50-11ea-9517-c70b3eaef560.html 3) Through the Swedish Looking Glass Sweden got a lot of praise this week from unexpected admirers, including the NYT and WHO. The Times, under the headline “‘Life has to go on’: How Sweden has faced the coronavirus without a lockdown,” admitted “to a large extent, Sweden does seem to have been as successful in controlling the virus as most other nations.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html WHO executive director of Emergencies Program Dr. Mike Ryan said: “I think if we are to reach a new normal, I think in many ways Sweden represents a future model of — if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns.” https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-sweden-which-avoided-mass-coronavirus-lockdowns-should-be-model-for-the-world President Trump then proceeded to bash Sweden on Twitter: “Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!” https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161 We still like the Swedish approach, but we do hate to agree with the Times or the WHO. Sweden does have higher deaths than its neighbors, but it also has lower deaths per capita than France, Italy, Spain. And it may have peaked, with hospital and ICU resources not exhausted and deaths nowhere near the levels the models predicted without lockdown.  Most importantly, by allowing more spread among the low-risk population, Sweden may avoid a second wave that lockdown countries have in the fall. So the jury is still out. What we do know is that while unemployment is up in Sweden it is up much less sharply than in lockdown countries. 4) Lessons From Forgotten Hong Kong Flu Pandemic of 1968 Our John Fund in National Review looks at how the U.S. handled the 1968-69 Hong Kong flu pandemic far differently than we are handling COVID. The virus was fatal primarily to people older than 65 with pre-existing conditions. The Centers for Disease Control reports the Hong Kong flu killed – accounting for the difference in population – the equivalent of 165,000 Americans today. The nation coped with the virus. Resources went to protect the old, frail and vulnerable. Politicians didn’t “shelter in place” most of the healthy population or shut down the economy. In fact, 1969 was a boom economic year and featured the last balanced budget the country would see for three decades. Fund writes “We were more resilient then, there were no helicopter parents, and we were brought up in an era when it wasn’t unknown to get chicken pox, measles, mumps, German measles, or scarlet fever. During the Hong Kong flu, Americans rode buses less often, washed their hands, and practiced social distancing. But they went to work and school.” https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-crisis-lessons-1968-hong-kong-flu-pandemic/ 5) Do we have an Economist editor lurking on the Hotline? Running through all the studies we’ve cited this week, the venerable Economist magazine published an unsigned editorial yesterday calling for the schools to be reopened: “Though children are highly susceptible to flu, covid-19 is different… If they do get it, they are 2,000 times less likely than someone over 60 to die. “Nor is there evidence that children who do end up catching the disease are silent spreaders who pass it on to their families. Researchers in Iceland and the Netherlands have not found a single case in which a child brought the virus into their family. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the European Union’s public-health agency, said last week that child-to-adult transmission ‘appears to be uncommon.'” https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/04/30/when-easing-lockdowns-governments-should-open-schools-first 6) Cabin Fever Will Lead People to Snap, Crackle, Pop Everyone knows Americans are suffering from “cabin fever” after being isolated in their homes for six weeks. But a survey by the Kelton Global firm adds some data meat to the anecdotal evidence. Of the 1,900 people Kelton surveyed, 72% said they expect to reach a “breaking point” by mid-June if lockdown orders are still in place. A jarring 100% of respondents said they would snap if the lockdowns lasted longer than six months. The “breaking point drivers” for people are what you’d expect loneliness, arguments with one’s spouse or family, constant anxiety and depression. https://www.studyfinds.org/coronavirus-72-of-locked-down-americans-say-theyll-reach-breaking-point-by-mid-june/ 7) If you think stopping the trains is the hard part… Following up on Wednesday’s announcement that subway trains will be disinfected Governor Cuomo announced yesterday that subways will no longer run 24/7 but will close from 1am to 5am for cleaning. “This is going to be one of the most aggressive, creative, challenging endeavors the MTA has done,” said Cuomo. “It’s not that easy to stop train service. “ https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/nyc-subways-stop-running-24-hours-day-cuomo-says 8) California Governor Faces Local Rebellion This coming weekend promises to be hot and sunny in Southern California. But Governor Gavin Newsom has announced that beaches in Orange County will be closed because of an “atrocious” lack of social distancing on them. Local officials are pushing back, armed with footage taken from helicopters and eyewitness accounts from police officers that indicate there were very few violators. Don Wagner, a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors, chastised Governor Newsom for undermining public cooperation in following guidelines: “Medical professionals tell us the importance of fresh air and sunlight in fighting infectious diseases, including mental health benefits.” Supervisor Michelle Steel said loudspeakers had voiced regular messages about distancing to beachgoers. George Skelton, a liberal columnist for the Los Angeles Times, made fun of Newsom, suggesting that he needed to chill out and get some beach time. “If it’s unhealthy, if people are being infected with the virus by being drawn to the ocean as humans always have, show us some data,” he wrote. “Do people who go to the beach contract the virus more than people who don’t? Show us the numbers.” Other counties have had it with Newsom’s arbitrary orders. In Humboldt County, near the Oregon border, Sheriff William Honsal said he wouldn’t enforce Newsom’s order to close beaches and state parks. In Modoc County, which also sits on the Oregon border, schools, hair salons, churches, restaurants and other business will reopen Friday as long as people stay six feet apart. https://wkow.com/2020/04/30/surfs-down-in-california-governor-will-close-beaches/ 9) Is the lockdown killing more people than the virus in Oregon? One unintended consequence of the lockdowns Americans are experiencing is many people may be dying at home from non-COVID causes because they are either under the mistaken impression hospitals are too busy for them or are too frightened to go to hospitals. The latest data point comes from Oregon, where crude deaths are higher than for an equivalent period in previous years, but less than half of these excess deaths are tied to COVID. Nearly all the above-average deaths occurred at home, among Oregonians both receiving and not receiving hospice care. Meanwhile, Oregon hospitals are running significantly below typical capacity. https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/04/oregonians-have-died-at-rate-well-above-average-since-mid-march-but-tie-to-covid-19-unclear-state-data-show.html 10) Heroic Quote of the Day: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Florida will open retail, restaurants, and non-COVID medical procedures on Monday, and the governor is taking the other pandemic – the fear pandemic – head on: “We will get Florida back on its feet by using an approach that is safe, smart, and step by step. What is our biggest obstacle? Fear. Fear of the unknown. Fear sparked by constant doom and gloom and hysteria that has permeated our culture for the last six weeks. For example, we’ve seen a sudden drop in the number of people who are seeking medical care for heart problems and stroke symptoms, not because these common ailments have all of a sudden disappeared, but because people are terrified of going to the hospital because of the Coronavirus. This will have huge health consequences in the very near future. It will almost assuredly result in excessive fatalities. Fear is our enemy….The only thing we have to fear is letting fear overwhelm our sense of purpose and determination.” 11) Anti-Hero of the Day: The Governor Grinch Who May Steal Summer Maine is a scrappy but poor state that is heavily reliant on its summer tourist industry. But Governor Janet Mills appears prepared to cancel Maine’s summer by the looks of her plan to reopen the economy. The Portland Press Herald reports “Maine’s enormous summer festival season – celebrating everything from blueberries to blues music – could be scrapped for 2020.” It also won’t be until July or August that hotels, campgrounds and RV parks will be allowed to begin serving visitors. Bars will also be closed until then. Even if out-of-state visitors try to squeeze in some time in Maine toward the end of summer, their options will be limited unless they can squeeze in a 14-day quarantine that must precede their vacations. “Come Quarantine In Maine!” Doesn’t strike us as an appealing tourism office slogan. https://www.pressherald.com/2020/04/28/maine-cdc-reports-17-additional-coronavirus-cases-but-no-new-deaths/# 12) Is Now The Time To Buy Stocks? CTUP founder Steve Forbes gives the latest stock market news, whether investors should wait to buy until prices drop, and if the strategy to “buy high, sell low” still holds true with world markets in pandemic turmoil. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4s5iGIG7wo |
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