Right before the first lockdowns within the U.S. I wrote several articles detailing the items that were likely to become hard to find as the supply chain became strained, and people began to stockpile essentials. I noted that certain items will remain available to a point, but only because of rationing by retailers. Other items would remain on the shelves, but only because their prices skyrocketed.
Now, the supply chain is once again seeing strain and inflation is rising, and there are many goods that I suspect will either disappear (like ammo has mostly disappeared), or the costs will climb until the average person cannot afford to purchase such items. This is a threat that the public is slowly growing aware of, but the real crisis has not hit them yet.
I also expect that if there is a panic to stock goods before inflation strikes hard the list of items being rationed by big box stores will expand. Understand that in some cases there may not necessarily be a true shortage with certain items, but retailers will follow government “guidelines” in order to “prevent hoarding.” Meaning, the retailers will be told to acclimate the public to the idea of rationing as a way of life.
I would note that product rationing under government influence or request (or demand) is very common within socialist and communist countries with failing economies. I would also note that usually, hyperinflation or stagflation often strikes these same economies resulting in forced government price-fixing and extreme supply breakdowns. I expect all of this to happen within the U.S. over the next couple of years, however, for now, let’s focus on goods that are probably going to become scarce in the near term.
Rationing by totalitarian governments is not so much meant to protect supply chains as it is meant to prevent the public from stocking enough goods at one time to become more independent from the system. With a year or more of basic necessities in every household, the majority of crisis events would not trigger panic in the populace, and panic is exactly what the establishment wants. They want you to be as unprepared as possible, with only a week’s worth of supplies at any given time. If you are always worried about where next week’s food and other necessities are going to come from, it is very difficult to find the motivation and will to rebel against the system that is abusing you.
In rural areas, the dynamic changes slightly, as a far larger percentage of the population is more accustomed to living off the land. Cities are going to remain the hardest-hit areas when the supply chain slows down. Meaning, if there is a breakdown in the “just in time” stocks of retailers, the cities will be hit first. During the last lockdown, I noticed people from larger towns and cities, even out-of-state people, coming to my rural area and buying up supplies in the local stores because the stores where they were from were empty of specific goods. Do not be surprised if this happens again in the near term.
Now is the time to stock the goods you might need for the next several months, while the economic and pandemic situation is relatively quiet. Here is a list along with a brief explanation for each item…
Prescription medications
More specifically, painkillers and antibiotics are about to become harder to find. Such medications are already in low supply, and this is supposedly due to their use in COVID treatment. Antibiotics are being used in post-COVID treatments to avoid bacterial infections.
That said, I suspect that the shortages are more to do with the fact that China manufactures the VAST majority of U.S. drugs and supplements. It is likely that the Chinese have been stockpiling drugs for themselves and slowing exports despite higher demand overseas, just as they have been stockpiling many other goods. American dependence on China to maintain our medical supplies is a massive Achilles Heal.
If you have a doctor that is liberty-minded, they may be willing to give you an extra prescription for the medications you need. If you are diabetic and insulin-dependent, then you need to address this issue right now. I would also suggest looking into alternative treatments and (including fasting) in order to reduce sugar deficiencies in your body.
If you can’t stock low supply medications through your doctor, there are alternatives. I have noticed that Fish Mox (which is the same Amoxicillin that is used for humans) is back and available on some websites. I have used it on multiple occasions, and it does work, just be sure you do not have any allergies.
For painkilling, you can take a larger dose of ibuprofen which acts in a similar way to prescription painkillers. This is not recommended unless you are dealing with a serious condition or injury. Medical journals indicate that an adult should not take more than 1,200 mg in a single day, so I would stick to that guideline. Always take the lowest amount needed to reduce pain.
Whatever you can stock right now in terms of medications you use, do so. Be sure to have several months on hand in your preps.
Bulk foods
Bulk foods are still available, but the prices are skyrocketing. In my area, shelf prices on bulk foods such as rice and beans have doubled in the past six months. I expect them to double or perhaps triple again in the next year due to inflation. Get them while the prices are still relatively low. Another factor to consider is that if inflation turns to hyperinflation, or if there is civil disruption, rationing will expand into bulk food items and stocking larger amounts will become much harder.
Spices
Spices are going fast lately. More people cooking at home because of continued lockdowns means a dwindling supply. Another problem is that most spices are manufactured overseas, and supply chain disruptions are going to hit the U.S. first. Be sure to store your spices in an airtight waterproof container with moisture absorbers to avoid water damage from condensation in the air.
Lumber
If you don’t do much carpentry or repairs around the home, you may not have heard, but there is a historic lumber shortage in the U.S. right now and prices are going up every month. So far, the price jump has added over $36,000 to the cost of building a new average-sized house. You might think that in a country with such vast forest reserves the U.S. would not have this problem, and we do cut a good amount of wood, but a lot of it is shipped overseas to places like China instead of being sold to Americans first.
The only solution I see to this is for states and counties with ample logging history to ignore federal regulations and start logging again. In my region of Montana, the logging industry has been destroyed by the EPA and the BLM. Instead, they allow forests to rot without management and this creates wildfire dangers. Now, instead of being loggers, many men have decided to become firefighters to make ends meet. It’s a completely backward governmental philosophy.
Lumber supplies are only going to dwindle further, and the trade war with China does not seem to be increasing availability at all. If you have a homestead or you are planning any additions or fortifications in the future, you should be buying what you will need now.
I would include other building materials, like nails, screws, paint, etc. in this category. People waiting for prices to go back down will probably get burned. I suspect prices will continue to rise for at least the rest of the year.
High-quality tools
The U.S. has seen a 36 percent drop in tool and die shops in the past few years and the majority of our tools are being made overseas. Most of the tools made in countries like China are low quality and tend to not last. In a collapse environment, a broken tool could mean disaster.
I’ve noticed a dwindling supply of high-quality U.S.-made tools the past few months. If you can find them, they are expensive. Check garage sales and secondhand stores for older U.S.-made tools for a discount or buy new if you can afford it. Try to have at least two of everything.
If you have a generator or a small solar power system you will be able to use power tools as well even during a national breakdown, so stock them. Even if you don’t build, having some tools on hand for barter would be a good idea.
Chest freezer
Chest freezers are back, but for months they were impossible to find. If you don’t have one, GET ONE NOW, even if it’s small. Smaller freezers use minimal power and can be hooked up to solar and being able to freeze foods for long-term storage is a huge advantage during a crisis situation.
Take notes from the previous lockdown event; whatever disappeared before will probably disappear again at the first sign of trouble. Anything from another government lockdown attempt to economic instability could trigger another rush.
Car parts
Critical car parts from electronics to brake pads were disappearing last year and I believe this will happen again this year. With shortages in computer ships for newer vehicles, the used car market is exploding, and people are buying up whatever they can find. This means car parts for repairs are going to be harder to find this year. Expect long wait times for parts unless you have them set aside.
I would store parts that are more likely to suffer wear and tear, such as shocks, U-joints, brake pads and sensors that are vital to the function of the engine, as well as an extra set of tires. Also, have enough gasoline and oil to keep your car operational for emergencies. Gasoline prices will likely continue to rise through the summer.
Ammo
This might seem obvious at this point, and if you haven’t stocked ammo by now after years of hearing me warn about it then you are probably kicking yourself hard. But all is not lost. There is STILL some ammo out there in the major calibers, including 5.56, .308, 9mm, etc. You are going to pay a premium for it (at least twice what you would have paid a year ago), but trust me, the prices are nowhere near as high as they are going to go next year.
Think that $1 per round is too high for 5.56? Try $5 per round or more a year from now. I am already seeing this in certain calibers such as 30-30 Winchester, which last I checked was selling at up to $60 for a box of 20 hunting rounds.
If you want to get into reloading, forget it. You aren’t going to find any supplies at a price that makes it worth it. Some powders are selling for $80-$90 for a single pound. Primers are selling for $240 for a box of 1000.
So, buy what you can and don’t expect prices to go back to normal, ever. In fact, I don’t think we will be able to buy ammo normally after 2021. There will only be what is traded in barter markets or “black markets.” Check websites like Ammoseek to make your search easier.
AR-15 and AK-47 parts
Grab a set of extra AR-15 or AK-47 parts if you own these rifles, including bolt assembly parts, trigger assembly parts, springs and takedown pins. I am noticing a dwindling supply of parts on the market right now and I think this issue will continue to worsen.
Body armor
Body Armor is still around, but prices are rising quickly, and delivery times are long. Most manufacturers will not have any ballistic plates ready until July. High-end ceramics and lightweight armor are incredibly expensive right now. AR500 steel plates are still cheaper, but very heavy of course. Every able-bodied person that plans to defend their home or town should have at least one set of plates and a plate carrier in their personal stock. Soon all body armor will be gone if my predictions are correct.
Written by Brandon Smith
