Moody’s warns of an Illinois death spiral
Illinois’ weak economic growth and population loss may signal the beginning of a financial death spiral.
The number of Illinoisans fleeing their home state has garnered the attention of Moody’s Investors Service, an agency that assigns ratings to government debt. In Moody’s U.S. Public Finance Weekly Credit Outlook, released Jan. 5, the credit agency pointed out that Illinois’ weak economic growth and consistent population loss are credit negative – which means the agency thinks Illinois’ credit outlook isn’t good. Government data shows that Illinois’ population is bleeding out to other states and that wealthier Illinoisans in particular are leaving fastest. These are the kind of negative indicators that lead agencies like Moody’s to issue downgrades.
Moody’s notes that population flight and tepid economic growth will complicate efforts to enact a balanced budget and keep up with mounting pension funding pressures.
There are good reasons for Moody’s warning. As they note, Illinois’ population flight is unlike the exodus from any other Midwestern state. Illinois is the only shrinking state in the region.
In fact, on a per-capita basis people are fleeing Illinois more than three times faster than Michigan, the next-worst state in the Midwest.
Furthermore, the Moody’s analyst who wrote the analysis noted that it’s normal for Midwestern states to have some degree of out-migration, writing:
Moody’s notes that population flight and tepid economic growth will complicate efforts to enact a balanced budget and keep up with mounting pension funding pressures.
There are good reasons for Moody’s warning. As they note, Illinois’ population flight is unlike the exodus from any other Midwestern state. Illinois is the only shrinking state in the region.
In fact, on a per-capita basis people are fleeing Illinois more than three times faster than Michigan, the next-worst state in the Midwest.
Furthermore, the Moody’s analyst who wrote the analysis noted that it’s normal for Midwestern states to have some degree of out-migration, writing:
“Net domestic migration … is not uncommon in the Midwest”
However, Illinois’ out-migration is different. The analyst noted that:
“Many of the top states for those leaving Illinois are nearby or adjacent states”
It is true that Illinoisans are leaving for nearby states, not just for the south and west. The most recent year of Census Bureau state-to-state migration data show that Indiana is the leader in attracting Illinoisans, gaining 20,000 more people than they lose to Illinois. Border states Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri also make the top six.
Illinois loses population to every state in the Midwest, making up half of the state’s estimated migration losses for 2015.
Moody’s points out that economic growth is essential to stem the losses, writing that “stronger economic growth in the state clearly would lure more job-seekers from the outside, bringing Illinois’ flow of exiting and arriving migrants closer to balance.”
Finally, the analysis points to the possibility of Illinois entering an economic and financial death spiral. The analyst writes
“Perhaps more important, population loss can be a cause, as well as an effect, of economic deterioration. A self-reinforcing cycle of population loss and economic stagnation could greatly complicate Illinois’ efforts to stabilize its finances. Not only is Illinois caught in a political stalemate over how to address fallout from a tax cut that took effect two years ago, but its operating budget faces a long-term challenge from steadily mounting pension funding requirements.”
Preliminary numbers from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability show that state tax revenues might be in decline on a year-over-year basis. If this is true, Illinois is either entering a recession or is experiencing so much out-migration that the tax base is disappearing. IRS data show that it is increasingly high-income Illinoisans who are leaving.
Illinois needs to first protect homeowners by enacting a permanent property tax freeze. Then, the state must aggressively slash spending by changing collective bargaining agreements with government unions and amending the constitution to allow for reforms to pension benefits. Finally, economic growth and business investment needs to be encouraged by fixing the state’s workers’ compensation system along with other regulatory reforms.
Illinois is approaching a tipping point where the possibility of collapsing into an economic death spiral is real. Taxes are already driving out residents and more taxes to pay for government spending will drive out even more residents as the state population continues to shrink.
Without real reform, Illinois will end up like a failing cable company that is losing customers and responds by raising service rates on remaining customers, causing even more to leave. It’s a losing strategy and will simply quicken the stampede of Illinoisans fleeing to surrounding states.
Trump freezes EPA for examination
Trump freezes EPA for examination
Under the Obama administration, the Environmental Protection Agency experienced a massive expansion in power. It looks like that’s about to change.According to reports Tuesday, the Trump administration has ordered the EPA to temporarily cease all social media, blogging and the release of press releases. More importantly, the administration ordered the agency to hold off on awarding any new contracts or grants.
“Right now we are in a holding pattern. The new EPA administration has asked that all contract and grant awards be temporarily suspended, effective immediately. Until we receive further clarification, this includes task orders and work assignments,” an EPA contracting officer said in an email obtained by ProPublica.
Trump spokesman Sean Spicer said the moves are part of the administration’s effort to review agency policies as new leadership takes over.
Myron Ebell who has headed EPA transition efforts said the move to freeze certain activities at the agency aren’t unprecedented despite liberal overreactions.
“They’re trying to freeze things to make sure nothing happens they don’t want to have happen, so any regulations going forward, contracts, grants, hires, they want to make sure to look at them first,” Ebell told ProPublica.
“This may be a little wider than some previous administrations, but it’s very similar to what others have done,” he added.
Rep.Margo Mc Dermed: State of the State
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| State of the State
Despite the current political climate, Governor Rauner gave an upbeat State of the State to the entire Illinois General Assembly last week. In his third annual State of the State Address, he indicated that he is optimistic about the future of Illinois and used the opportunity to talk about Illinois’ accomplishments, as well as the work that still lies ahead.
The Governor said he recognizes the state’s challenges, but “with great challenges comes great opportunity”. He is optimistic these challenges can be solved by working together to improve the future of Illinois. He discussed the administration’s accomplishments including ethics reform, record education funding, job creation and making government more efficient. The Governor also encouraged the General Assembly to pass legislation allowing voters to weigh-in on fair maps and term limits.
House Rules Adopted The new House Rules governing the 100th General Assembly were written by the office of Speaker Michael J. Madigan, and were adopted along partisan lines. Each Illinois House district contains more than 100,000 residents, but the new Rules of the House contain a wide variety of provisions intended to enhance the ability of Speaker Madigan to maintain complete control of the House.
Here are some examples of how undemocratic the rules are:
· Gives total control over legislation to the five-member House Rules Committee, “The Ultimate Gatekeeper”, comprised of three Democrats and two Republicans, with the Democrats being appointed by the Speaker on the basis of their complete fealty to him. The Rules Committee decides which legislation is allowed to be considered, and which bills are left to die without even a hearing.
· Current House Rules provide for only One-Hour Advance, Public Notice Prior to House Action on legislation.
· Current House Rules give the Speaker complete control of the daily agenda of the House Calendar.
In contrast to Speaker Madigan’s Rules, House Republicans advocated for common-sense reforms to the House Rules that would open up the legislative process to be more truly inclusive, collaborative and democratic. House Republicans jointly sponsored HR 47, an alternative Rules proposal meant to be bipartisan in its operation, but never received a vote.
AG Madigan Files Motion to Block Employee Pay At 7:30 PM on Thursday night, Attorney General Lisa Madigan filed a motion in St. Clair County Circuit Court to stop state employee pay by the end of February. Despite lacking the appropriation authority due to the lack of a budget, the state has continued to pay employees anyway after a judicial ruling on the matter. If a judge rules that employee pay must stop, it would put undue harm on thousands of state workers and put tremendous pressure on the current bipartisan effort to get a budget done.
New Leadership Illinois If you know of a female college student interested in pursuing a career in public service, they may be interested in the University of Illinois at Chicago’s NEW Leadership Illinois program. The program provides college leaders opportunities to network with and learn from many of Illinois’ most prominent female leaders. NEW Leadership Illinois is a yearly bi-partisan program that strives to educate and empower the next generation of female leaders.
This expenses paid program includes leadership education, hands-on training in public policy, and networking opportunities with leaders from every level of government. The 2017 program will be held June 5-9 in Chicago. Students from all backgrounds and in all majors are encouraged to apply. Students should attend a college or university in Illinois or should be an Illinois resident, and must have junior or senior standing in June 2017.
Tax Season Almost Here Illinois free tax preparation for low-income residents for the 2016 tax filing season will be offered by tax assistance centers across Illinois in cooperation with the Illinois Department of Human Services (IDHS). It is targeted towards families with incomes up to $55,000 and individuals with incomes up to $30,000. The service offices will help Illinois residents fill out and sign their forms in advance of the tax filing deadline of April 18, 2017, but eligible Illinois residents are urged to come in as soon as possible.
People whose incomes make them potentially eligible for this benefit can find the tax assistance centers that offer this free service. They should visit this website and enter their zip code to find a center close to where they live. This service is being targeted towards individuals and households that are potentially eligible for federal and state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITCs).
Senior and Senior Freeze Exemption renewal applications for Cook County have been mailed out. Under Illinois law, you must reapply annually for both these exemptions in order to continue to receive the deductions on your Second Installment Property Tax Bills. The application deadline is February 8th. For Will County, the deadline is July 1st. For more information visit the Will County website and the Cook County website.
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| Margo McDermed http://www.repmcdermed.com/ |
Homer School District 33C Finance & Operations Committee Meeting January 24, 2017
Summary of the Homer School District 33C
Finance & Operations Committee Meeting
January 24, 2017
_____________________________________________________________________
Barb Wilson, President Angela Adolf, Vice President Amy Blank, Secretary
Deb Martin, Member Ed Campins, Member Elizabeth Hitzeman, Member Russ Petrizzo, Member
At the January 24th Finance & Operations Committee meeting:
- Christi Tyler, Interim Assistant Superintendent for Business, updated the Committee on a bus leasing option that would enable the district to avoid a large capital outlay; refresh its entire fleet every 5 years; and reduce maintenance costs. Administrators met with three vendors recently and arranged for Homer 33C drivers to test drive a bus from each company/manufacturer. District mechanics were included in the process and invited to ask questions of each vendor. The vendors have until February 1, 2017 to return pricing and trade-in amounts for 71-passenger buses and lift buses, including custom special education buses that would enable the District to remove all seats to accommodate wheelchairs.
- Arlene Siefert, Director of Technology, reported the District received three bids from printer/copier companies to service every copier in the District. Administrators will recommend at the January 31, 2017 Board of Education meeting that the District award the maintenance agreement to Martin Whalen.
- Tyler and Siefert reported that only one school district in our area — Lemont — currently charges a separate technology fee. Instead of implementing a technology fee here, they recommend the District implement a nominal increase annually/biannually so that parents aren’t hit with a large spike in fees in a single year. At the January 31, 2017 Board of Education meeting, administrators will recommend that the District raise its registration fees $5 for grades K-4; $10 for grades 5-7; and $15 for grade 8. They also will recommend the District raise its Little Learners preschool program rate from $250 to $275. A survey of preschool program rates showed Homer 33C was charging significantly less than other service providers in our area.
- Tyler presented the Committee with a list of all district owned properties. They include:
- Its six school sites (Butler, Goodings Grove, Hadley, Homer Junior High, Schilling and Young)
- Its Transportation Center on Cedar Road
- Two vacant sites
- 12 acres on Parker Road
- 6 acres at Bruce and Cedar roads
- Instead of moving forward with a proposal to rent a former bank building on Bell Road for administrative offices, the District will conduct an audit at each school and facility (including the District Office and Transportation Center) to determine how each room is being used and what the repair/maintenance needs will be in the coming years. The goal is to make better use of existing space and to accommodate the steady increase of students. Moving forward, the District and its new Board (who will be seated after the April election) will need to focus on developing a long-range facility plan, reported Superintendent Kara Coglianese. Options that have loosely been tossed around so far are moving 5th graders back to the elementary schools, purchasing/leasing mobile classrooms or asking voters to fund a new school and/or classroom additions.
- Tyler reviewed the District’s portable radio bid with the Committee and suggested the Board move forward with a plan to purchase radios for the school buses.
- Tyler reported one of the District’s trucks, which is used for plowing and other tasks throughout the District, is in need of significant repairs. Instead of spending $6,000 to repair the 13-year-old truck with over 120,000 miles on it, administrators recommend the District purchase a new one for $36,000. The plow would be removed from the District’s old truck and installed on the new one. To pay for the truck, the District would reallocate funds that were budgeted for a repaving project.
The Next Regular School Board Meeting is January 31, 2017 at 7:30 p.m.
News From State Representative Mark Batinick
News From
State Representative Mark Batinick
For Immediate Release Contact: Debbie Kraulidis
January 30, 2017 (815) 254-0000
Batinick unveils outline for “1-2-3” state budget solution
PLAINFIELD – State Representative Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) today announced his outline for a “1-2-3 State Budget Solution” that would match current revenue estimates, balance spending reforms with structural reforms and prioritize the payment of the existing backlog of state bills, which currently exceeds $10.7 Billion, according to the Office of Comptroller Susana Mendoza.
“First, let’s complete a budget through 2018 that is based on the revenue we have. Second, let’s make a plan to pay our unpaid bills. Third, let’s have a thorough discussion about reforms and any new revenue,” Rep. Batinick said. Passage of a bipartisan budget solution is especially critical in the wake of the court motion filed by Attorney General Lisa Madigan last week seeking to halt state employee pay.
The first step in Rep. Batinick’s outline to achieve a responsible resolution to the ongoing state budget impasse centers on keeping the budget in line with the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) revenue estimate of approximately $33 Billion, differing from the $38-$40 Billion budget proposal being considered by the State Senate, which contains minimal or no spending reforms. Crafting a state budget at $33 Billion would meet the state’s commitments at a level consistent with the amount of revenue the state takes in. Pension reform would also have to be part of Step 1 (see attached outline).
The second step in Rep. Batinick’s outline makes note of the two options to pay the backlog of past-due state bills; in recognition that this backlog has led to erosion of Illinois’ human services network, raised the cost of doing business with the state and created widespread instability in every aspect of the Illinois budget. Those two options include selling a major state asset and/or imposing a one-time income tax surcharge designated only to pay off the past-due bill backlog.
Thirdly, Rep. Batinick acknowledges the need to discuss changes in our tax structure and specifies the reforms necessary to put Illinois on a path to prosperity; including school funding reform, property tax relief, workers compensation reform, unfunded mandate reform, government consolidation, and pension reform.
“The damaging instability wrought by the ongoing impasse coupled with the Attorney General’s action last week with regard to halting state employee pay require us to act quickly on passing a budget,” Rep. Batinick said. “The 1-2-3 Budget Plan is a set of parameters I believe can help advance serious bipartisan negotiations of how we can best come together, as quickly as possible, to pass a responsible budget for the families and taxpayers of Illinois.”
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Joshua B. Wessell | Senior Communications Analyst
Illinois General Assembly | Office of the House Republican Leader
Address 959 Oak Street | North Aurora, IL 60542
Office (630) 345-3464
Email jwessell@hrs.ilga.gov | Find us everywhere at ilhousegop.org
Rahm Chicago is a great place to live for the affluent in Streeterville and Lakeview
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Senate soda tax takes aim at low-income Illinoisans
Illinois Policy Institute
Chicago could soon become home to the most expensive soda in the nation, if a tax hike proposal from the Illinois Senate becomes law.
In addition to a 32 percent income tax hike, Senate Bill 9, introduced by state Sen. Toi Hutchinson, D-Chicago Heights, would add a statewide penny-per-ounce tax on bottled sugar-sweetened beverages, syrups or powders sold or offered for sale to a retailer for sale to a consumer. This cost would be felt across the state, but Cook County residents – whose board just passed a similar, countywide penny-per-ounce tax on sugary drinks – would be hit hardest, especially in Chicago.
Two penny-per-ounce taxes on sugary drinks would match Boulder, Colo., for the steepest such taxes in the nation. But, on top of that, Chicago residents also pay the highest sales taxes of any major city in the nation at 10.25 percent. Additionally, Chicago imposes a 3 percent tax on all non-alcoholic beverages. Taken together, soda prices in Chicago could nearly double.
For example, a 24-pack of Coke at a base price of about $8 would be $14.82 after taxes. A 12-pack at a base price of $4 would be $7.41 after taxes.
And Chicago’s poorest residents would feel the effects the most. According to Gallup, 45 percent of people with incomes less than $30,000 drink regular soda, while one-third of those with incomes from $30,000-$74,999 drink regular soda, and just one-fifth of those with incomes above $75,000 drink regular soda.
Much like the regressive soda and sales taxes politicians have imposed in Chicago and Cook County, Springfield politicians are placing the heaviest burden on poor and middle-income Illinoisans as a “solution” to fiscal woes. These are the groups hurt most by Illinois’ dismal post-recession income recovery – the worst in the Midwest – and shouldn’t be asked to bail out politicians’ decadeslong reckless spending and financial mismanagement.
In addition to the sugary drink tax and personal and corporate income tax hikes, SB 9 does little to nothing for structural reforms the state needs. The plan wouldn’t fix the state’s broken workers’ compensation system; includes a watered-down, two-year property tax freeze; and fails to modernize Illinois’ broken defined-benefit pension system.
Illinois needs real reforms, such as 401(k)-style retirement plans, comprehensive property tax reform and a complete overhaul of its workers’ compensation system. Overburdening struggling Illinoisans with more taxes is not an acceptable substitute.
Pro-Woman, Not Pro-Abortion
Pro-Woman, Not Pro-Abortion
Written By John Stonestreet | 01.27.17
In a recent Saturday Night Live sketch, a group of millennial women visit the historic home of suffragette Susan B. Anthony in Rochester, New York. Devout feminists one and all, they decide before leaving to invoke the ghost of Anthony by saying her name three times. Lo and behold, she appears, played by Kate McKinnon—bun, lace collar, and all.
Hilariously, the modern feminists find Anthony quite boring. She drones on about women’s rights and dignity, while they check their smart phones and argue about dinner. Until finally she says something that wakes them all up: “Abortion is murder!”
Doubtless many modern feminists were taken aback by this Saturday Night slip-up, given the show’s liberal leanings. But as Serrin Foster of Feminists for Life told National Review, all of the “feminist foremothers…without known exception, spoke out against abortion.”
That’s right. The suffragettes—Susan B. Anthony in particular—were fiercely pro-life, calling abortion a “crime against humanity,” “feticide,” and “child murder.” In fact, one of the primary organizations backing pro-life candidates today—the Susan B. Anthony list—does so in her name.
Given how close the unborn were to the hearts of the earliest women’s rights crusaders, it’s troubling to see how unwelcome pro-life women are on the modern feminist stage. We saw this discrimination vividly last week during the nationwide Women’s March.
Muffled but not quite absent were the voices of pro-life women. Several prominent pro-life organizations that applied as partners of the women’s march were either dis-invited or ignored, though several showed up anyway. Even the New York Times, in a surprising and praiseworthy piece, documented the virtual blackout of pro-life messages at the demonstration.
After booting a Texas anti-abortion group, Women’s March co-chairwoman, Linda Sarsour, told the Times, “If you want to come to the march you are coming with the understanding that you respect a woman’s right to choose.”
In other words, pro-lifers not welcome!
“This is what we conservative women live with all the time,” said Charmaine Yoest, senior fellow at American Values: “This idea that somehow we aren’t really women and we just reflect internalized misogyny.”
The Women’s March was, Yoest concluded, a “wholly owned subsidiary of the abortion movement.” And were it not for the unexpected coverage by the Grey Lady, these organizers may have succeeded in drowning out the pro-life message.
But as Bob Dylan sang, the times, they’re a changin’. Just this month, the pro-choice Guttmacher Institute reported that abortions in the United States have fallen to their lowest rate since Roe v. Wade. (Read more here.)
A lot has contributed to this decline, from pro-life legislation and ultrasound availability, to widespread contraception use and the acceptance of unwed motherhood. So the news isn’t all good. But when you consider the growing movement of young people who see the rights of the unborn as a social justice issue, the tired assumption that feminism equals abortion support really begins to falter.
Even pop culture and late night TV are straying from the pro-abortion script. And as Kathryn Jean Lopez wrote in National Review, this may be our chance to reintroduce an older, better women’s movement—one that didn’t pit the rights of mothers against the lives of their unborn children.
Editors note:
RESOURCES
Dissing Susan B. Anthony
Kathryn Jean Lopez | National Review | January 23, 2017
Views on Abortion Strain Calls for Unity at Women’s March on Washington
Sheryl Gay Stolberg | New York Times | January 18, 2017
Secular, Feminist, and Pro Life: The Message Goes Mainstream
John Stonestreet | BreakPoint.org | October 25, 2016
21 Days of Prayer for Life, pdf
prayer guide
Hilariously, the modern feminists find Anthony quite boring. She drones on about women’s rights and dignity, while they check their smart phones and argue about dinner. Until finally she says something that wakes them all up: “Abortion is murder!”
Doubtless many modern feminists were taken aback by this Saturday Night slip-up, given the show’s liberal leanings. But as Serrin Foster of Feminists for Life told National Review, all of the “feminist foremothers…without known exception, spoke out against abortion.”
That’s right. The suffragettes—Susan B. Anthony in particular—were fiercely pro-life, calling abortion a “crime against humanity,” “feticide,” and “child murder.” In fact, one of the primary organizations backing pro-life candidates today—the Susan B. Anthony list—does so in her name.
Given how close the unborn were to the hearts of the earliest women’s rights crusaders, it’s troubling to see how unwelcome pro-life women are on the modern feminist stage. We saw this discrimination vividly last week during the nationwide Women’s March.
Muffled but not quite absent were the voices of pro-life women. Several prominent pro-life organizations that applied as partners of the women’s march were either dis-invited or ignored, though several showed up anyway. Even the New York Times, in a surprising and praiseworthy piece, documented the virtual blackout of pro-life messages at the demonstration.
After booting a Texas anti-abortion group, Women’s March co-chairwoman, Linda Sarsour, told the Times, “If you want to come to the march you are coming with the understanding that you respect a woman’s right to choose.”
In other words, pro-lifers not welcome!
“This is what we conservative women live with all the time,” said Charmaine Yoest, senior fellow at American Values: “This idea that somehow we aren’t really women and we just reflect internalized misogyny.”
The Women’s March was, Yoest concluded, a “wholly owned subsidiary of the abortion movement.” And were it not for the unexpected coverage by the Grey Lady, these organizers may have succeeded in drowning out the pro-life message.
But as Bob Dylan sang, the times, they’re a changin’. Just this month, the pro-choice Guttmacher Institute reported that abortions in the United States have fallen to their lowest rate since Roe v. Wade. (Read more here.)
A lot has contributed to this decline, from pro-life legislation and ultrasound availability, to widespread contraception use and the acceptance of unwed motherhood. So the news isn’t all good. But when you consider the growing movement of young people who see the rights of the unborn as a social justice issue, the tired assumption that feminism equals abortion support really begins to falter.
Even pop culture and late night TV are straying from the pro-abortion script. And as Kathryn Jean Lopez wrote in National Review, this may be our chance to reintroduce an older, better women’s movement—one that didn’t pit the rights of mothers against the lives of their unborn children.
Editors note:
RESOURCES
Dissing Susan B. Anthony
Kathryn Jean Lopez | National Review | January 23, 2017
Views on Abortion Strain Calls for Unity at Women’s March on Washington
Sheryl Gay Stolberg | New York Times | January 18, 2017
Secular, Feminist, and Pro Life: The Message Goes Mainstream
John Stonestreet | BreakPoint.org | October 25, 2016
21 Days of Prayer for Life, pdf
prayer guide
